【Aim】The invasive plant Dysphania ambrosioides poses a serious threat to ecological security and agricultural production in China due to its strong environmental adaptability and rapid reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Analyzing the adaptability and assessing the risk of D. ambrosioides can provide a theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention of this plant.【Method】On the basis of 549 occurrence records and 16 environmental factors, we employed the ensemble platform Biomod2 to model the risk areas of D. ambrosioides under current climatic conditions and predict changes in potential risk areas in China under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Furthermore, the ecological niche overlap analysis was performed to assess niche dynamics.【Result】The dominant climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of D. ambrosioides were identified as precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18), isothermality (bio3), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), and annual mean temperature (bio1), whose cumulative contribution rate reached 85.91%. Under the current climate conditions, D. ambrosioides was mainly distributed in the coastal areas of southeastern China and the plain areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and extended to the Northeast Plain and the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The potential risk area reached 537.55×10⁴ km², accounting for 56% of the total land area in China. Under future climate scenarios, the distribution range of D. ambrosioides was projected to exhibit a trend of northward and westward expansion, progressively extending into areas with higher latitudes and altitudes. The rate of this expansion was positively correlated with greenhouse gas emission concentrations, while the distribution centroid expected to shift northwestward. Niche dynamics analysis revealed a moderate niche overlap (D=0.566) between the native and invasive ranges of D. ambrosioides, indicating a combination of niche conservatism and evolutionary potential of this species. Under future climate scenarios, the stability of its ecological niche was projected to decrease progressively with the increase in greenhouse gas emission concentrations.【Conclusion】D. ambrosioides has a wide risk range in China, with temperature and precipitation being the main influencing factors. Under future climate scenarios, the risk area of D. ambrosioides in China is expanding, showing a clear trend of northwestern migration and diffusion.