蓝胫束颈蝗在新疆的潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测
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国家重点研发项目(2022YFD1400505); 新疆重点基金(2023D01D08); 天山英才领军人才项目(TSYCLJ0016); 第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2021xjkk0605); 新疆草原有害生物普查项目(2021—2023)(XJCYYH-01)


Potential distribution regions and ecological suitability prediction of Sphingonotus coerulipes in Xinjiang
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    【目的】 蓝胫束颈蝗作为新疆土蝗类优势物种,需对其高度适生区域加强监测、风险评估和管控的能力。本研究结果可为该虫的精准防治提供依据,对今后的防治工作具有现实指导意义。【方法】 基于MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS软件和ENMTools等工具,利用蓝胫束颈蝗225个自然分布点和11个环境因子,对该蝗虫当前气候和未来气候(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)下的潜在适生区域、主导环境因子、生态位参数和质心迁移情况进行预测和分析。【结果】 (1)蓝胫束颈蝗适生分布区域集中在北疆地区以及南疆地区的克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州。高度适生区域为阿勒泰地区、伊犁哈萨克自治州和克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州;(2)与当前气候情景相比,在未来气候情景下蓝胫束颈蝗的适生区域总面积均有所减少,SSP126情景平均减少1%,SSP245情景平均减少1.68%,SSP585情景平均减少1.55%;(3)影响蓝胫束颈蝗分布的主导气候因子包括最暖月最高温(bio5)、降水差异系数(bio15)、最暖季度平均温度(bio10)。当前气候下,该物种适宜分布的生态位参数为:最暖月最高温范围为24~31 ℃,降水差异系数小于44.35,最暖季度平均温度范围为16.35~22.54 ℃;(4)未来气候情景下,蓝胫束颈蝗分布的质心位置仍在塔城地区,整体向西南方向迁移。【结论】 当前及未来,蓝胫束颈蝗在阿勒泰地区高度适生面积占其总高度适生面积比例极大。有关部门可针对其适生区域情况进行实地调查,以实现早期预警,及时防治,从而减少该虫危害。

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    【Aim】 As a dominant species of indigenous locusts in Xinjiang, Sphingonotus coerulipes Uvarov requires enhanced monitoring, risk assessment and control capabilities within its highly suitable distribution regions. The results of this research provide a solid foundation for the precise control measures of locusts, offering practical guidance for future prevention and control efforts. 【Method】 This study utilized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS software, and ENMTools et cetera. Based on 225 natural distribution points and 11 environmental variables of Sphingonotus coerulipes, it predicted and analyzed the potential suitable distribution regions, dominant environmental variables, ecological niche parameters, and centroid migration of Sphingonotus coerulipes in current and future climate (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). 【Result】 This study found that: (1) The suitable distribution regions of S. coerulipes were mainly concentrated in northern Xinjiang and the Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture in southern Xinjiang. Highly suitable regions include Altay Prefecture, Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture. (2) Compared to the current climate scenario, suitable distribution regions of S. coerulipes were expected to decrease under the future climate scenario. Theaverage reduction is 1% in the SSP126 scenario, 1.68% in the SSP245 scenario, 1.55% in the SSP585 scenario; (3) Dominant climate factors affecting the distribution of Sphingonotus coerulipes include the highest temperature in the warmest month (bio5), the precipitation difference coefficient (bio15), and the average temperature in the warmest quarter (bio10). Under current climate conditions, the ecological niche parameters suitable for the distribution of this species are: the highest temperature of the warmest month ranging from 24-31℃, the precipitation difference coefficient less than 44.35, and the average temperature in the warmest quarter ranging from 16.35-22.54℃; (4) In the future climate scenarios, the centroid of S. coerulipes distribution remains in the Tacheng area, but overall, it migrates towards the southwest. 【Conclusion】 Currently and in the future, the highly suitable regions of S. coerulipes in the Altay area constitutes a significant proportion of its total highly suitable regions. Relevant authorities can conduct on-site investigations of these suitable regions to achieve early warning, timely prevention and control, thereby reducing the damage caused by locusts.

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万育欣,宋占云,雷子怡,周成龙,赵远娥,潘冉冉,易光平,季荣.蓝胫束颈蝗在新疆的潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测[J].生物安全学报中文版,2025,34(2):172-179

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-14
  • 最后修改日期:2024-04-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-16
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