基于气候变化情景下红火蚁在贵州的适生区预测
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贵州省科技支撑项目(〔2021〕504号); 贵州省科研机构创新能力建设专项资金(〔2023〕009号)


Prediction of the potential distribution of Solenopsis invicta in Guizhou Province in the context of climate change
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    【目的】 预测分析红火蚁的贵州适生区,以便制定有效的管控措施,防止红火蚁在贵州进一步蔓延。【方法】 基于环境变量数据和红火蚁在贵州的发生分布数据,运用MaxEnt生态位模型与ArcGIS分析相结合预测方法,模拟预测红火蚁在当前和未来气候条件下在贵州的适生区域。并通过ROC (receiver operatin characteristic)曲线下面积(area under the curve, AUC)评估预测模型的精度。【结果】 红火蚁MaxEnt模型预测结果训练数据和测试数据的AUC值分别为0.935和0.932,预测结果精度高。红火蚁在贵州的潜在适生区面积约占全省面积的72.56%,高、中、低适生区各占全省面积的8.92%、31.99%、31.65%。高、中适生区主要集中于贵州南部。其中,高适生区主要集中在贵州省黔西南州以及黔东南等少量地区;中适生区是高适生区的外围扩展,主要分布在安顺市、黔南州和黔东南州。未来不同气候情景下,红火蚁在贵州的适生区面积总体呈增加势态,其质心逐渐向北迁移。环境变量重要性分析结果表明,影响红火蚁在贵州分布的关键环境因子为温度和降水。【结论】 红火蚁在贵州省潜在适生范围广,需强化监测预警体系建设,采取有效控制措施,阻止红火蚁传播,减少经济损失。

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    【Aim】 Solenopsis invicta is included in China's list of key invasive alien species for control, which seriously threatens agricultural production and ecological security in Guizhou. In this study, we predicted and analyzed suitable habitats for S. invicta in Guizhou Province. Effective control measures should be developed to prevent the further spread of S. invicta in Guizhou Province. 【Method】 After combining the environmental, occurrence, and distribution data, the MaxEnt ecological niche model and ArcGIS were used to predict the suitable areas for S. invicta in Guizhou Province under the current and future climatic conditions. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic was used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model. 【Result】 The AUC values of the predicted results by the MaxEnt model were 0.935 and 0.932, respectively, indicating that the predicted results were highly accurate. The area of potentially suitable habitats for S. invicta accounted for 72.56% of the provincial area. Among them, the areas of high, medium, and low suitability accounted for approximately 8.92%, 31.99%, and 31.65% of the national area, respectively. High and medium suitability areas are mainly concentrated in southern Guizhou. Particularly, the highly suitable area is mainly concentrated in southwestern Guizhou, and a few areas in southeastern Guizhou; the medium suitability areas are the peripheral expansion of the high suitability areas, mainly concentrated in Anshun City, and southeastern and southern Guizhou. Under different future climatic scenarios, the area of suitable habitats for S. invicta in Guizhou is expected to increase, with the center of mass gradually shifting northward. The analysis results of the importance of environmental variables obtained using the Jack knife-cut method showed that temperature and precipitation are the key factors affecting the distribution of S. invicta. 【Conclusion】 S. invicta has a wide range of potentially suitable areas in Guizhou Province, and it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and early warning systems and implement effective control measures to prevent the spread of S. invicta and reduce economic losses.

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张念念,黄安香,喻三鹏,齐大鹏.基于气候变化情景下红火蚁在贵州的适生区预测[J].生物安全学报中文版,2025,34(2):162-171

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-29
  • 最后修改日期:2024-04-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-16
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