【Aim】 The mealybug (Pseudococcidae) is a biological group with strong reproductive and dispersal capacities, posing significant threat to mangoes and litchis among fruits and cash crops. Therefore, strengthening the risk assessment of alien mealybug invasion is necessary. In this study, we used a self-organizing map (SOM), a comprehensive quantitative model, to assess the global establishment risk, particularly in China. We screened out potentially invasive mealybug species to reduce the number of species to a manageable level, providing a reliable theoretical basis for early warning, quarantine measures, comprehensive prevention, and mealybug control in China. 【Method】 We summarized and constructed a geographically absent/present matrix including 109 Pseudococcidae species in 176 countries globally. Next, we performed a national cluster analysis using the SOM algorithm, based on similarities in species assemblages. 【Result】 We clustered 176 countries into 49 categories, grouping countries with similar species assemblages and geographically adjacent countries together. We further screened and ranked the SOM indices of the Pseudococcidae species not yet established in China, determining a ranking list of the establishment risks. We evaluated the establishment risks of Paracoccus interceptus, Dysmicoccus lepelleyi, and Planococcus ficus in countries where they are not yet present, including China. Our results demonstrated that the risks of these three mealybugs ranked first, second, and sixth in China, respectively. 【Conclusion】 Our findings indicated that Paracoccus interceptus, D. lepelleyi, and Planococcus ficus, which can cause serious economic losses, display high establishment potential in China. Therefore, we recommend strengthening the original area, port quarantine inspections, and implementing integrated management strategies to prevent the introduction of these harmful mealybugs, ensuring the healthy development of fruit trade in China.