基于MaxEnt模型的气候变化下杏树鬃球蚧在中国的潜在地理分布预测
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中央财政林草科技推广示范项目(2020TG09);新疆维吾尔自治区天山英才计划


Prediction of potential geographical distribution of Sphaerolecanium prunastri under different climate change scenarios based on MaxEnt model
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    【目的】杏树鬃球蚧在天山野果林暴发成灾,对野杏的生存以及野果林的生态环境造成严重影响,同时危害栽培果园。预测未来气候情景下杏树鬃球蚧在中国的潜在适生区,可为农林部门开展防控工作提供科学依据。【方法】收集关于杏树鬃球蚧的分布点与气候数据,采用MaxEnt模型预测其在中国的适生区。【结果】MaxEnt模型中的AUC值为0.949,表明预测结果具有较高可靠性。最冷月最低温度、最冷季度降水量、温度季节性变化标准差、等温性是影响杏树鬃球蚧潜在分布的主要环境变量。杏树鬃球蚧在我国分布区较为广阔。该模型预测杏树鬃球蚧的高适生区主要分布在辽宁省环渤海区域、河北、北京、天津、山东、河南、陕西省中部、甘肃和陕西的临界处,以及新疆维吾尔自治区的伊犁哈萨克自治州、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州和阿勒泰地区,中适生区以高适生区为核心向外蔓延。其高、中、低适生区分别占中国陆地面积的4.62%、6.69%、18.77%。未来气候情景下,高适生区呈进一步扩散趋势,尤其在新疆地区,高适生区大面积扩散。【结论】杏树鬃球蚧适生区面积占陆地面积的30.08%,有继续扩张和大面积暴发风险,在我国西北地区、华北地区面临的形势更为严峻,应引起相关部门关注。

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    【Aim】 Sphaerolecanium prunastri, a scale insect which harms wild fruit forests in western Tianshan, Xinjiang, is inducing massive mortality of Prunus armeniaca and the decline of ecosystem health and services. The potential suitable habitats in China under future climate scenarios were predicted, which can provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of S. prunastri in agriculture and forestry departments. 【Method】 Based on the collection of geographical distribution points of S. prunastri and global meteorological data, MaxEnt model was used to predict and analyze the potential suitable habitats in China. 【Result】 The average AUC of the MaxEnt model was 0.949, suggesting the prediction results highly reliable. The main environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of S. prunastris were min temperature of coldest month, precipitation of coldest quarter, standard deviation of temperature seasonal change and isothermality. The results showed that S. prunastri could have a wide potential distribution in China. The model predicted that S. prunastris's highly suitable habitats were mainly distributed in Bohai Coastal Region of Liaoning Province, Hebei Province, Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong Province, Henan Province, central Shaanxi Province, as well as the border area between Gansu Province and Shaanxi Province, and the Yili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, and Altay region of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.The moderately suitable habitat were mainly distributed in Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang. The area ratios of highly suitable habitats, moderately suitable habitats, and low suitable habitats were 4.62%, 6.69%, and 18.77%, respectively. Under the future climate scenario, the highly suitable habits showed a dispersion trend, especially in Xinjiang. 【Conclusion】 The habitats suitable for S. prunastri account for 30.08% of all land area, with a risk of continued spreading and invading outbreaks, especially in the northwest and north of China. Relevant departments should pay attention to it.

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郭发城,王玉丽,欧阿力别克·巴依朱马,高桂珍.基于MaxEnt模型的气候变化下杏树鬃球蚧在中国的潜在地理分布预测[J].生物安全学报中文版,2024,33(1):60-67

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-13
  • 最后修改日期:2023-07-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-03-02