【Aim】 Leptinotarsa decemlineata is a destructive pest affecting potato production. Temperature is an important factor affecting the occurrence of L. decemlineata. The influence of this factor on L. decemlineata occurrence during its overwintering period and occurrence duration was determined. Our study provides theoretical support for the future prediction and control of L. decemlineata occurrence and insights into the prediction of the occurrence of this pest in other areas. 【Method】 We collected samples of L. decemlineata and used the stepwise discriminant analysis method to discriminate and classify the occurrence degree and aboveground periods of these beetles in Qapqal County from 1994 to 2021. 【Result】 In the training group, the accuracy of the occurrence degree and aboveground period of L. decemlineata were 100.00% and 80.00%, respectively. In the prediction group, the accuracies of the occurrence degree and aboveground period of L. decemlineata were 69.23% and 76.92%, respectively; the results were considered to be credible. 【Conclusion】 Through screening, the factors affecting the occurrence degree and aboveground period, the temperature in April were found to affect both the aboveground period and occurrence of L. decemlineata in Qapqal County.