[Aim] The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera:Gelechiidae), is an invasive insect pest that threatens the tomato industry in China. We used the@RISK model to predict the potential economic losses under various management strategies, including chemical control (CC), biological control (BC), and sensory cue-based physical and chemical control (SCPC). These results are expected to guide preventative measures and management options for T. absoluta in China.[Method] We collected the data on damage rate, yield loss rate, control cost and the effectiveness of the control on T. absoluta from the Chinese and international literature, as well as on the cultivated acreage, production costs and market price. Based on this information, we used the@RISK model to predict and evaluate the economic losses to the tomato industry in China under non-prevention and control scenarios, as well as three different prevention and control scenarios.[Result] Under the non-prevention and control scenario, the potential economic losses ranged between 82261656.7 and 419033982.6 thousand yuan per year nationally. However, the economic losses were effectively reduced by 89.83% when using CC (synthesized insecticides), by 87.90% using BC (arthropod natural enemies release and use of microbial agents), and by 89.19% using SCPC (light traps and synthesized sex pheromone-based products).[Conclusion] As these various management scenarios are successful in reducing the economic losses caused by T. absoluta and considering the rapid dispersal and expansion of this species in China, we suggest that the government and relevant stakeholders be aware of the importance of the management of this pest. The promotion of prevention and management programs against this pest is urgently needed, as they are expected to protect the tomato industry in China.