[Aim] Ambrosia trifida is a serioius invasive plant in China, and studying its distribution pattern and potentially suitable areas are crucial for early warning and control measures. [Method] This study was based on the MaxEnt optimization model to predict the potential geographic distribution of A. trifida under current and future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). [Result] At RM=3.5, the model FC=LQH was optimal; the prediction was relatively accurate, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (i.e., the AUC value) reached 0.9287. Eight factors were comprehensively evaluated: human activity factor (hfp, 69% contribution rate), isothermality (bio3, 8.9% contribution rate), annual precipitation (bio12, 7.3% contribution rate), and elevation (ELEV, 3.7% contribution rate), temperature seasonal variation coefficient (bio4, 2.9% contribution rate). Under the current climate, highly suitable areas of A. trifida were mainly concentrated in the Northeastern Plain, Jianghuai Region, Beijing—Tianjin—Hebei, Shandong Peninsula, and other economically developed areas. [Conclusion] In future climate change scenarios, areas potentially suitable to A. trifida in China will be reduced to varying degrees, as suggested by the loss rate exceeding the increase rate. A. trifida will thus likely migrate towards the south. The lowest temperature of the coldest month (bio6) is the most frequent factor in the most dissimilar variable analysis, indicating that temperature plays an important role in potential geographic distribution changes of A. trifida. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of A. trifida.